How did Lula do it?‍
For everyone who works in politics, or knows Brasil, the answer is of course complicated, but broadly this is what happened.

The terrible first round results for Lula and PT meant the campaign immediately flipped from a defensive incumbency campaign to a challenger campaign. The electorate had an opportunity to give the incumbent a kicking, and that allowed Lula to move into his political
comfort zone as a challenger. His brilliance was to position Bolsonaro as the incumbent, because of his father and the history of the attempted coup.

He kept his political coalition together. President Lula has always been branded as "leftist". His rhetoric and campaigning play into this, but what it doesn't show is that he has always had to build and deliver for a broad political coalition, from far left to centre right. His policies and decisions are often anything but "left", and voters know this.

Lula mobilised around 3 million people who didn't vote in the first round (despite compulsory voting). He gained an additional 10 million votes from the first round; Bolsonaro added almost 4 million. Both are impressive results in the circumstances.

Compulsory voting matters in Brasilian politics. It limits voter suppression campaigns, and there were concerted attempts at these in the first round. The shock of the first round defeat mobilised the young, online and on the streets, behind Lula as a challenger.

The noisy, hyper-masculine campaign drowned out women's voices. Many women will have quietly voted for President Lula while the men in their lives were shouting and screaming for Bolsonaro. The polls so often don't pick this up.

He always understood that a political campaign is more than the echo chamber of social media.

Finally, policies. Lula has always governed with pragmatism, in the best interests of the many and not just the privileged few. Being in government does not always mean making binary choices or bowing to those who shout the loudest. This is probably the main lesson from this election for centre left incumbents around the world.

Saving the Amazon and drilling for oil in the north-east of Brasil is not a binary choice. If you are on the left, you can, and have to, do both. Most people want both. They understand the contradictions and the responsibilities that come with them. Lula always understood this.

Building new infrastructure, from airports to water and sewage networks, helps the whole country. Nothing can, or should, stay static. New infrastructure stimulates economic activity for the communities it serves and for the whole of society. Always giving in to the loudest pressure groups does not serve the interests of those you govern and, as Lula rightly argues, is a consistent weakness of the centre left globally.

Then there is wealth creation. Lula has always understood that building wealth allows fair redistribution to those less fortunate. Wealth inequality in Brasil is huge but, whatever his critics may think, Lula has always supported wealth creation as long as those with wealth help with reasonable redistribution. Those with wealth, and their political champions, should remember that wealth brings responsibility, and that some redistribution to those less fortunate will make them wealthier in the long term. That is as true in the UK as it is in Brasil.

Lessons for the UK left
It strikes me that my friends and colleagues on the left of UK politics should look very carefully at how this victory was achieved. It came from taking decisions in the national interest, even when people in your own political coalition were vocally against them; from not being derailed by niche culture war issues; from not listening to your own online echo chamber; and from embracing and leading the fight. We shouldn't be scared to stand up for what we believe in. The electorate don't have to agree with everything to vote for you. They just want to know what you believe in.

Institutions under attack
Brasil's legal institutions withstood sustained attacks, and Brasil has strong checks and balances in place. During an election in particular, Brasil's electoral court hears complaints in real time. In the UK, our regulators report back after 6 or 12 months with a retrospective view.
In Brasil, any campaign can go to court on the day if it feels that advertising, social media or media coverage has been inaccurate. The court reviews, rules and imposes sanctions immediately. This has really helped to keep a check on the huge volume of misinformation and disinformation circulating online, and on the role of the large social media platforms. We really should look at that model.

It is a disgrace that independent and impartial judges on Brasil's Supreme Court were sanctioned by the United States. Lots will be said about President Trump's "interference" in the Brasil election. All I will say on this is that those who wish to attack President Trump should look very carefully at what other American administrations have done in Brasil, not least the Obama and Biden administrations. If you want a debate about America's influence in Brasil, that debate has to include everything, and not just the bits that fit your domestic political arguments.

There is, however, a very interesting discussion to be had about the influence, networks and money flows between US and Brasilian evangelical churches. This election campaign really was a fight between the traditional Catholic Church power base and the evangelical churches.

The rule of law, lawyers, judges, the electoral court and the Supreme Court must be defended at all costs against attack. Lawfare is a real thing on the right of politics in Brasil.

Attempts to delegitimise the result have already started, and recent history shows us that efforts will be made to overturn it. This is where the real fight is.

Much will be said about the role of the Supreme Court in extending voting by 2 hours. That decision came as a result of requests from both campaigns. The order was made countrywide to extend the voting for those booths still open. An additional 34,000 votes were cast nationwide in the extension period.

What comes next
The first signs that Lula's challenger campaign was working only began to show in the internal party figures about five days out. It was not until the last few days that the numbers showed Lula's political instincts were right and none of us needed to worry. It was an uncomfortable, hard-won campaign, and my congratulations go to the campaign team who delivered when it mattered most.

The real challenges come now: protecting democracy, institutions and the rule of law from further attack; governing with a divided Congress and holding together a large electoral coalition from the far left to the centre right; and the pressures of inflation and the cost of living.

We can expect the losers, and their digital cheerleaders, to demand a re-run. This is all part of the delegitimating playbook we saw in 2022/2023. There will not be a re-run because the Supreme Court received requests for extensions from both campaigns and the number of votes cast in the additional time granted nationwide does not impact the overall majority Lula achieved.

For many in the world, there will be a collective sense of relief. What happens in Brasil matters, and Brasil is more than the Amazon. It plays an essential role in bridging a divided world. Lula has once again earned his right to be listened to, and I hope those of us on the centre left of politics do listen to him.

For my part, I will always be proud to have played a small role in helping President Lula regain his democratic rights. The decision on Brasil's future has always been a matter for the Brasilian people. They have rejected interference and division, protected their institutions and given a clear signal of the type of country they are.

We have a lot to learn from Brasil. Those of us in the UK, USA, Europe, Australia and other liberal democracies should perhaps take a moment to listen to it rather than speaking at it.

For my British friends
This week King Charles is visiting the Caribbean and Brasil's neighbour Guyana. A lot of the focus, understandably, will be on history and legacy, but I would urge you to look at what is happening in the north-east of Brasil on the border with Guyana. There is significant potential there for British companies.

The UK is held in great respect in Brasil, and if you have ever thought about exporting your goods and services there, now is the time. It isn't always an easy market to work in, especially without Portuguese, but a small group of Brits have invested the time, shown respect to the country and made it work.

I am delighted to have worked with Brasil for so long. It is a huge market full of opportunity, and if you want to know more about what is going on and how to engage, do let me know.

And for those in politics who want to know more about how Lula and his team did it, I am happy to give you my views.

John Watts
Co-Founder, Haldaine
John.Watts@haldaine.com